DULUTH, Minn. — The number of breeding ducks estimated across the continent hit 33.99 million this spring, up 5% over 2023, but nearly all of the increase happened in the far north and west.

That’s the report from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which released its annual spring waterfowl survey results recently.

Among key species, mallards increased 8% from 2023 to 6.61 million, although that number remains 16% below the long-term average. The far northern and western regions accounted for all of the increase. Mallards decreased in every region of the “prairie pothole” region, including an 8% drop in southern Saskatchewan, which historically has more breeding mallards than any other region in the survey.

Wigeon posted the most dramatic change in this year’s survey, up 55% overall to 2.92 million. As with mallards, most of the increase occurred in far northern and western areas of the continent.

Green-winged teal, an important species for hunters in all four flyways, increased by 20% to 3.01 million. Greenwings nest primarily in the boreal forest regions in Canada.

Scaup, commonly called bluebills and which mostly nest in the far north, increased 16% to 4.07 million. Scaup remain 17% below their long-term average.

The survey, completed in May, also estimated 5.16 million total ponds or wetlands, a 4% increase overall. However, the location of those ponds differed greatly from 2023. The pond estimate on the Canadian prairie and parklands, which includes southern regions of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, decreased by 19%. Meanwhile, ponds in the U.S., including Montana and the Dakotas, increased by 49%.

“An increased breeding population of ducks and pair counts, along with wetland habitat conditions that improved throughout May and June with good spring rains across most of the prairies, should help boost duck production,” said Frank Rohwer, president and chief scientist for North Dakota-based Delta Waterfowl. “We definitely have potential bright spots for duck production in the eastern Dakotas and possibly in Manitoba. The spring rains really helped in those areas, as well as parts of Alberta that started the spring quite dry.”

Officials remind hunters that the spring count captured only adult birds and not new ducks hatched and raised this summer. The success of those young birds, coupled with fall weather patents, will largely determine this fall’s hunting season outcomes.

The report details the results from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, which has been conducted annually by the USFWS and Canadian Wildlife Service since 1955.

Many ducks winging their way north to Minnesota last spring arrived here early, found little water and kept flying north.

That’s the assessment from wildlife biologists after finding duck numbers way down in 2024 compared to 2023, at least in Minnesota’s prime waterfowl breeding areas.

The 2024 breeding population estimate for mallards was just 141,000 this spring, down 37% from last year and down 41% from the 10-year average.

The estimated blue-winged teal population was 160,000, up 26% from 2023 but 9% below the 10-year average and 23% below their long-term average.

The population estimate for all ducks was 445,000 ducks, 10% below the 2023 estimate, 30% below the 10-year average and 34% below the long-term average.

The population estimate of Canada geese was 106,000, 7% below last year’s estimate and 31% below the long-term average

“When ducks got here early, with an early spring and early ice-out, there wasn’t that much water on the landscape,” said Bruce Davis, Bemidji-based biologist for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources wetlands wildlife research group. “We were still in drought or abnormally dry conditions across much of Minnesota. We got a lot of rain later in April and May, a lot of flooding even. ... But by then, the ducks had already gone elsewhere. We think a lot of ducks just overflew Minnesota this year to nest somewhere else.”

That means they likely went farther north, into Canada, where production can be lower.

For the ducks that did nest in Minnesota, plenty of water by late May and June should have helped spread them out and increase survival. But ducks that nest close to the water may have had their nests flooded out by rapidly rising waters through June.

“It’s a mixed bag for nesting, probably not great,” Davis said.

Davis said hunters this fall can expect to see a similar hunting season to 2023, but that weather during the season will be, as always, the key factor.

“We may see fewer ducks early with these spring survey numbers, fewer local ducks, but the migration could be great,” Davis said. “It all depends on the weather as the season progresses.”

Minnesota has been producing far fewer ducks, and far fewer duck hunters, over the past 50 years. More frequent and severe droughts combined with a loss of wetlands and grasslands where ducks breed and nest are the key factors, Davis and others note. Wetlands and grasslands are lost to agriculture and development, while invasive cattails also choke out wetlands that remain.

Efforts are underway to save and improve habitat in Minnesota, Davis said, but it’s not enough to make big changes in overall duck numbers.

“We would need some major (government) policy changes to get back the wetlands and grasslands that we need to see any serious increase in duck numbers. ... I don’t know how to make that happen,” Davis said.

Hunters in Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas will see nearly the same waterfowl hunting season parameters as 2023, including season length and bag limits. If duck numbers continue to drop, however, season lengths and daily bag limits will likely be reduced in the coming years.

Minnesota’s early teal-only hunting season ran Sept. 1-5, and the early goose season began Sept. 1. A youth waterfowl season ran Sept. 6-7. The regular waterfowl season began Sept. 21.

The North Dakota Game & Fish Department reported spring breeding duck numbers at 2.9 million, down from 3.4 million last year but still 17% above the agency’s long-term average. Mallards, for instance, were down about 19%, pintails were down about 20% and blue-winged teal were down roughly 13%.

North Dakota biologists note that duck numbers are down as much as 50% from the peak period between 1994 and 2016.

The 2024 early resident-only waterfowl hunting season in North Dakota will begin Sept. 21, and the regular waterfowl season for non-residents begins Sept. 28.

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources said their annual spring survey of breeding waterfowl indicated both stable population numbers and habitat conditions for migratory birds.

Surveyors estimated the state’s breeding duck population to be 502,058 birds, a 3.7% decrease from the 2023 estimate but above the long-term average.

The mallard breeding population estimate is 146,561 birds, 7.9% lower compared to 2023 and lower than the long-term average.

The wood duck population estimate was 96,711 birds, similar to last year and above the long-term average.

The Canada goose population estimate was 153,402 birds, similar to 2023 and significantly higher than the long-term average.

“In addition to positive survey results, the wet conditions across the state should provide excellent brood-rearing opportunities for waterfowl throughout the remainder of the summer,” said Taylor Finger, DNR game bird ecologist.

Wisconsin’s early teal season ran Sept. 1-9, and the early Canada goose season ran Sept. 1-15. Youth waterfowl weekend was Sept. 14-15, and the regular waterfowl season in the northern zone began Sept. 21.