ANALYSIS: 5 questions facing Mariners ahead of spring training

ANALYSIS

For many Seattle Mariners baseball fans, this winter has been a particularly dreary one.

If you’ve been eagerly anticipating an answer to one question from the outset of the offseason — What exciting moves will the Mariners make? — then, well, you’re left with only a sad-trombone sound effect and two 30-something infielders as your prize.

The good news for Mariners fans: The offseason is just about over. Baseball is right around the corner, with pitchers and catchers reporting Wednesday to Mariners camp in Peoria, Ariz.

Here are five more questions lingering over the Mariners this spring:

1. Do the Mariners have a shot to win the AL West?

In a word: Yes.

And despite an agonizing offseason — prompting more frustration from an already angry fan base — the Mariners have better odds to win the division than many might realize.

That, at least, is what one algorithm suggests.

FanGraphs’ projection model breaks down the American League West as such:

Texas Rangers: 84.9 wins, 33.3% to win division

Seattle Mariners: 84.5 wins, 31.2% to win division

Houston Astros: 84.2 wins, 28.9% to win division

(Sacramento) Athletics: 75.7 wins, 3.8% to win division

Los Angeles Angels: 74.8 wins, 2.8% to win division

Overall, the Mariners have a 56.2% shot to reach the playoffs, the third-highest probability in the AL behind the Yankees (72.3%) and Rangers (59.0%).

2. What are reasonable expectations for Julio Rodríguez and the offense?

Fair or not, the Mariners offense will only go as far as Julio Rodríguez takes it.

Yes, that might be asking a lot of a 24-year-old, but that already largely proved to be true during Rodríguez’s first three seasons. He’s that talented and that valuable, and it’s fair to expect his best seasons are still ahead of him.

Rodríguez’s career offensive splits are telling:

Home: .264/.319/.455 (.774 OPS)

Road: .290/.348/.479 (.826 OPS)

First half: .264/.322/.418 (.740 OPS)

Second half: .300/.355/.549 (.903 OPS)

Rodríguez had a notable surge late in the 2024 season while working closely with Edgar Martínez. How notable?

Here are MLB’s top 5 most valuable hitters over the final 34 games last season, via FanGraphs’ WAR:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers: 3.0 fWAR (227 wRC+)

2. Victor Robles, Mariners: 1.9 fWAR (203 wRC+)

3. Eugenio Suarez, D’backs: 1.9 fWAR (176 wRC+)

4. Julio Rodríguez, Mariners: 1.8 fWAR (159 wRC+)

5. Dansby Swanson, Cubs: 1.8 fWAR (138 wRC+)

No one was happier than Rodríguez to have Martínez back on the coaching staff for 2025, and the club has already talked about giving Rodríguez more at-bats in spring training in hopes of staving off another slow start to the regular season.

Just how good could Rodríguez be in 2025?

The ZiPS model, which uses historical analysis to project player performance, expects him to be one of the top-10 hitters in MLB, with a 5.8 fWAR that ranks No. 7 among all position players (and fourth in the AL), with 27 homers, 27 steals and a 135 wRC+.

ZiPS projects Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh as the No. 8 most valuable player in the AL (5.3 fWAR) and the single-most valuable defensive player in the AL, regardless of position.

Strikeouts should remain a concern after the Mariners led the majors in that category last year, but there was a significant decline in strikeouts for the final 34 games after Dan Wilson and Martínez took over.

And with Rodríguez flanked by Victor Robles in right field and Randy Arozarena in left field, the Mariners have a chance to have the most dynamic outfield in baseball.

In 57 games after acquiring Arozarena in late July, the Mariners ranked fourth in the AL in OPS (.727), second in wRC+ (116) and second in runs per game (4.84).

ZiPS projects a bounce-back season this year for shortstop J.P. Crawford (3.0 fWAR) and a 2.8 fWAR for Arozarena. The model isn’t as keen on Robles (2.1 fWAR) repeating his 2024 breakthrough.

3. Can the rotation do it again?

Seattle’s starting pitchers led the majors in innings pitched in each of the past two seasons, the first team to do that in consecutive years since Philadelphia did it three years in a row from 2010-12.

Beyond just the impressive workload, Mariners starters posted quality innings, ranking No. 1 in the majors in virtually every notable pitching category: — ERA: 3.38; quality starts: 92; opponent batting average: .221; WHIP: 1.03; strikeout-to-walk ratio: 4.81; fewest walks per 9 IP: 1.77; opponent on-base percentage: .266 and opponent OPS: .644.

Of note, the 1.03 WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per innings pitched) from Mariners starters last year ranks as the best by any MLB rotation since the end of World War II (tied with the 2021 Dodgers).

As a whole, the 2024 Mariners pitching staff also led MLB in average fastball velocity at 95.5 mph, according to MLB Statcast data. That’s the highest fastball velocity of any pitching staff on record, per FanGraphs’ database.

We rehash all those numbers to reinforce this point: They’re back.

They’re all back.

Despite rampant trade speculation, the Mariners held onto their five prized starters throughout the winter, and Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo will form the backbone of this roster in 2025.

And they’ll need to be elite again if the Mariners are to compete for the AL West crown.

4. How will the patchwork infield come together?

This is the most intriguing (perplexing?) question going into spring training.

Veteran infield coach Perry Hill will have his work cut out for him teaching Luke Raley the nuances of playing first base and helping Jorge Polanco transition to third.

Raley, 30, an outfielder for the bulk of his career, made 35 appearances at first base for Tampa Bay in 2023 and 41 games there with the Mariners last year. He’s been lauded for his work ethic learning a new position.

Free-agent signing Donovan Solano, 37, will split time with Raley at first base, taking over Justin Turner’s role from the second half of last season. Prospect Tyler Locklear also figures to get consistent reps at first base this spring, too.

Polanco, 31, did play third base as recently as 2023 with Minnesota, making 15 appearances at the hot corner. So he’s not starting from scratch, and the Mariners hope the move to third will ease the burden on his legs after an injury-riddled 2024.

The only real open competition in camp will be at second base.

Dylan Moore is penciled in as the starting second baseman, but youngsters Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas and Cole Young will figure into the mix this spring.

5. Can the bullpen stay healthy?

Andrés Muñoz is already touching 100 mph in his early bullpens. Matt Brash is on track to return from Tommy John surgery in late April. Gregory Santos is feeling good.

Those are the early reports out of the Mariners, and that’s as good a starting point as the club could hope for going into camp.

Last year, the Mariners’ bullpen plans were derailed before the season even started when Brash and Santos went down with significant injuries.

Muñoz was his usual dominant self and Trent Thornton and Collin Snider emerged as pleasant surprises in leverage roles.

But the Mariners 'pen overall was a sore spot for too many stretches in 2024 for a team that has played in so many close games the past few years — and figures to do so again this year.