OPINION: Please explain the Idaho Legislature’s new math

On Jan. 24, Idaho House Health and Welfare Committee Chairperson John Vander Woude, R-Nampa, said the Gem State was so broke that it could no longer afford to spend $110 million extending Medicaid to some 90,000 working poor adults.

“We’re on a trajectory that I just don’t think we can afford to continue,” Vander Woude said.

Just the day before, House Speaker Mike Moyle, R-Star, announced Idaho was so flush with cash that it could cut income taxes by $253 million, with most of it going to the wealthiest Idahoans and corporations.

“The last couple of years, if you’ve watched the state of Idaho, we’ve been trying to do all we can to give money back,” Moyle said.

Only among a group of Republican lawmakers overdosing on Capitol marble dust could both statements be true at the same time.

Start with Vander Woude’s analysis of Medicaid.

Voters — who passed expansion by nearly 61% — got it right. Because the federal government provides 90% of the funding, Medicaid expansion saves money. Were the state to reinstate programs to cover the medical bills of people who can’t afford them, state prison inmates and those who require mental health care — at 100% — taxpayers would wind up spending an estimated $10 million more.

According to an analysis prepared two years ago, depriving Idaho’s economy of federal Medicaid expansion matching dollars — then put at $800 million — would trigger the loss of $14.11 million in sales taxes and $14.8 million in income taxes. Local governments would lose another $8.97 million in property taxes.

In other words, repealing Medicaid expansion would not save $110 million. Instead, it would increase the hit on Idaho taxpayers by almost $50 million.

Hospitals, especially those that serve smaller communities, would see their operating margins shrink, which would lead to cuts in services.

And every Idahoan who still has access to health insurance would have to pay more.

Moyle would dig the hole deeper by another $253 million. By cutting the state’s flat income tax rate from 5.695% to 5.3%, the House speaker would reduce revenues by $240 million alone. Then he would expand the income tax exemption for military pensions by $12 million, plus eliminate a mining metals capital gains tax by another $1 million.

The last time Moyle lowered Idaho’s flat income tax rate from 5.8% to 5.695%, the Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy predicted the poorest fifth of Idaho households would get 1% of the tax savings. The richest fifth would split two-thirds of the tax cut.

Is there any reason to expect a different outcome this time?

To that, Republicans want to add $150 million in additional tax cuts.

Much of it is earmarked for property tax relief that would be unnecessary were Moyle to update the Homestead Exemption — which is designed to protect homeowners — for nearly a decade of inflation. But doing that would reverse the tax windfall a weakened Homestead Exemption has delivered to the owners of commercial property at the homeowners’ expense.

Elsewhere, House Republicans want to increase the sales tax credit on groceries for Idaho taxpayers from $120 a year to $155, costing another $50 million.

All in all, that’s four times the tax relief Idaho Gov. Brad Little recommended at the opening of this legislative session. It’s unsustainable. When Idaho’s economy eventually slows down, the depleted tax base no longer will be capable of covering the cost of education, public safety, health care and basic government.

You can excuse most lawmakers for believing that things are different this time. Throughout their legislative tenure, Idaho’s economy has been going great guns.

Moyle, however, has no such excuse. Now in his 14th term, he was present for the Great Recession.

How do you explain this tendency to replace Robin Hood with the Sheriff of Nottingham?

On one level, it’s apparent. Examine the makeup of Idaho’s Legislature. You’ll see people who are older, more male and certainly better off financially than their constituents. There simply are more Sheriffs of Notthingham than Robin Hoods.

But to understand the Legislature’s new math, you may need to consult Groucho Marx, Yogi Berra or Bob Uecker. They’d tell you that, to the people you sent to Boise, one plus one equals a $400 million surplus when they want it — and a $110 million deficit if they don’t.

Is that clear enough? — M.T.