Here's the crucial gadget in the toolbox to expand Medicaid in Idaho's Nov. 6 election: a list of people who want to extend Medicaid coverage to an estimated 51,000 to 62,000 working adults who can't afford subsidized private health insurance offered through Obamacare.
Nearly 115,000 people signed Reclaim Idaho's initiative petition to bypass six years of legislative obstructionism and put the question before voters this fall.
This is a dividend, the value of which can not be overstated.
Start with the basics.
To get a measure on Idaho's ballot, you need 56,192 signatures from registered voters and getting the equivalent of 6 percent of the eligible voters in 18 of Idaho's 35 legislative districts.
For a grass roots campaign, the obstacles are meant to be impossible to surmount.
Reclaim Idaho collected 74,974 valid signatures.
Volunteers rounded up about 55,000. The Fairness Project's paid signature gathers collected the rest.
The campaign acquired the number of signatures required in 21 legislative districts and came close to qualifying in one more.
On top of that, however, is another 38,502 people who signed the petitions but for some reason were deemed invalid. Most likely, they were not registered to vote.
Here's what Reclaim Idaho can do with that asset.
First, it can mobilize its base of almost 75,000 active voters.
Next, it knows where to find 38,500 people who will support the measure if only they can be persuaded to register and vote.
In other words, the campaign already knows where to locate about half the votes it will need to prevail.
Some of the names on that list can help recruit friends and family to vote for expansion.
And finally, several people who signed that petition may be amenable to supporting candidates who agree with expansion - such as former state Rep. John Rusche, D-Lewiston - or vote against high-profile Medicaid opponents - such as the GOP's nominee for lieutenant governor, former state Rep. Janice McGeachin, R-Idaho Falls.
No single list can win an election.
But where's the opposition to check it?
Where is its list of voters to mobilize?
Thanks to McGeachin, the Idaho GOP formally opposes the initiative. But there's been no organized Republican Party effort beyond that. In fact, several prominent GOP lawmakers endorsed Medicaid expansion last week.
Where's the evidence of corporate resources mounting a campaign against the initiative?
Meanwhile, Medicaid expansion maintains its popularity. A recent poll gives the initiative 66 percent support, including 53 percent among Republicans.
And it pencils out. The actuarial firm, Milliman Inc., concluded that even under the worst-case scenario, Idaho would spend a net $4.5 million to expand Medicaid - a rounding error in a $3.5 billion state budget.
Expansion would inject $500 million into Idaho's economy and generate about $20 million in new tax revenues, allowing the state to absorb the costs.
So about the only argument against it is speculative - maybe the federal government will break its pledge to cover 90 percent of the costs. That's a thin case.
If a counter-attack is coming, it's getting late.
The election is fewer than 85 days away. - M.T.
