Maybe it’s no more complicated than Idahoans simply not liking government telling anyone what to do.

Or perhaps the highly infectious and more virulent strain of the COVID-19 virus known as the delta variant has begun to strike lightly vaccinated Gem State so ferociously that Idahoans are beginning to challenge their vaccine-hesitancy assumptions.

Either way, a new poll commissioned by the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry offers a potential warning to any politician — notably Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin — who is betting on getting more votes by battling the vaccine instead of the virus.

On July 9, McGeachin stormed the bastions of Idaho’s medical establishment for requiring their employees to get the shot. Although her opponent in next spring’s GOP primary, Gov. Brad Little, had blocked any vaccine mandates for state employees, he had taken no such step in the private sector.

So the state could not stop Saint Alphonsus Health System, St. Luke’s Health System and Primary Health Medical Group from insisting the 22 percent to 28 percent of their workforce that was still unvaccinated do so by September or find work elsewhere.

“This has left numerous employees with these major health care companies with little recourse for not wanting to take the emergency use authorized vaccine,” McGeachin wrote in a letter to House Speaker Scott Bedke, asking that the House come back into session to take action.

Her ally, state Rep. Priscilla Giddings, R-White Bird, echoed that sentiment. While appearing on a Boise talk radio program last month, she suggested calling the House back into session to vote on an Ethics Committee censure recommendation she apparently anticipated would provide an opportunity to pass a ban on vaccine mandates.

If so, they’d run afoul of an overwhelming Idaho majority.

According to the IACI poll, 66 percent oppose any legislative attempt to “make it illegal for private businesses, including hospitals, to require COVID vaccinations.”

About 23 percent approved.

“As usual, Lt. Gov. McGeachin is the one out of touch with Idaho voters, pandering to a vocal minority to score political points on whether the Legislature should regulate businesses that require their employees to be vaccinated,” IACI President Alex LaBeau wrote.

As a more general principle, 78 percent agree that “Idaho politicians should not tell private businesses what to do.” Only 17 percent disagreed with that idea.

Peel back the layers of the poll results and you can see traces of the politicization that has dogged efforts to bring COVID-19 under control. A few more Republicans — who typically oppose most forms of government regulation — are more willing than Democrats to support McGeachin’s position.

Moreover, McGeachin would find less resistance to her view in the populist region of northern Idaho than anywhere else.

The self-described “voice of business in Idaho” did not venture far from its narrow interests. It did not, for instance, ask Idahoans what they thought about having vaccine mandates imposed upon them.

But the poll’s timing is intriguing — July 27-29.

Three weeks after McGeachin weighed in, the delta variant was taking hold, particularly in western and southern states where vaccination rates were dismal.

The trends have only intensified. As Idaho Education News’ Kevin Richert noted:

l The number of new cases reported last week — 3,709 — marked the biggest jump since Jan. 22, when the state endured 4,293 new cases.

l More young people are getting infected. Last week, close to 12 percent of new cases were children ages 5 to 17 — up from 10 percent of new cases throughout most of the pandemic.

l Hospitalizations are rising again. Last week, confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infections had hospitalized 208 people, the highest number in more than six months.

Is it any wonder that there’s been an uptick in the number of Idahoans who are getting vaccinated? Last week’s 18,366 Idaho vaccinations marked an 18 percent increase over the week before.

Nationally, the number of daily vaccinations reached a low of about 341,500 in mid-July — down from a high of 2.6 million in early April. But as of last week, the trend had moved toward 839,700 daily vaccinations.

Taken in context, it’s a warning to a lieutenant governor who, however little she worries about the public health, cares a great deal about the health of her own political career. — M.T.