OPINION: If plan goes through, who is doing to do all the work in Idaho?

We don’t know all of what the Trump administration may do in the coming year, since many of the ideas floated have faded in and out and some have been contradicted here and there.

But if there’s any through line, a single planned action that the president-elect and his people emphatically and consistently have promised, it is this: He will, immediately on taking office, declare a national emergency with the intent promptly to start mass deportation of people who are not in the country legally.

And maybe some of those who are here legally, too: Children born in the United States — and therefore citizens — to undocumented parents, could be swept up as well. In addition, not to mention, in the case of a really large action, some people who just look (to someone) as if they might not be from around here might be included.

The impact of that on the people at risk of deportation obviously is large. Less reported, though it’s getting growing attention, is the effect on everyone else who will be staying here.

In a sense, the number of “unauthorized” people in Idaho specifically is not massively large: about 40,000, or about 2% of the state’s population, and about a third of all immigrants in the state. The total number for the United States is around 11 million. (If you’ve been hearing 20 million or more, you’ve been hearing nonsense.) They do make up about 4% of all public school students, though. Nationally, this group makes up about 4.5% of all workers, but that varies a lot by location.

We do know that large-scale deportation — maybe even the threat of it — could have a big effect in Idaho, even if you look at just one single industry (one among many affected).

In February, the University of Idaho at Moscow released a report (paid for in part by the Idaho Dairymen’s Association (IDA), Idaho Farm Bureau Federation and Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry) which said “finding workers is a key concern for Idaho businesses today. In Idaho, 86% of unauthorized immigrants are working. This is higher than the national average of 74%. In Idaho, most unauthorized immigrants work in agriculture, construction and service industries. Idaho industry professionals report that in agriculture, dairy and hospitality industries, businesses employ unauthorized workers to meet their labor needs because authorized workers cannot be found. They also report that businesses adapt to lack of workers by foregoing business growth opportunities, cutting back production or even closing.”

Many businesses and industries are involved, but in Idaho the most direct impact might be in the dairy industry, which is a massive economic driver in the Magic Valley, and a big industry by any standard. The IDA estimates Idaho dairies account for about $10.7 billion in economic impact from sales per year. The UI report said, “Idaho’s dairy industry employs unauthorized immigrant workers when securing authorized workers is not feasible.”

That apparently is quite often. In a Dec. 10 report, the Twin Falls Times-News said that according to the IDA, “almost 90% of the dairy workforce is composed of unauthorized workers.” That sounds a little high, but the number in any event certainly is large.

Imagine you’re running a business — any business — and 90% of your labor force ghosts you. What would you do? And what do you do if your business relies in some way on that first one? And in the case of a dairy, how do you even manage those mass populations of cattle?

The Times-News quoted the IDA’s chief executive as saying that so far, dairy producers “are looking at what transpired in Trump’s first administration,” when no such mass deportation happened.

But this isn’t 2017. Then, no specific plans for a mass deportation were in place; the talk then was all about the wall. This time, very specific deportation plans have been developed.

But the Times-News also reported that “fear is driving undocumented families in Twin Falls to consider fleeing before potential mass deportations begin.” The impact could start to happen even before concrete actions by federal agencies do.

We’ll know soon enough. Jan. 20 is little more than a month away.

Stapilus is a former Idaho newspaper reporter and editor who blogs at ridenbaugh.com. He may be contacted at stapilus@ridenbaugh.com.