Study: The right size aircraft for Idaho could be tough to find

Finding the right size aircraft to meet demand will likely be one of the biggest challenges to establishing commercial air service between Idaho cities.

That was the message Friday from Mead & Hunt consultant Jeffrey Hartz, who updated the Idaho Legislature’s interim Intrastate Air Services Committee on the status of on ongoing passenger air service study.

The goal of the study is to evaluate opportunities for expanding commercial air service within Idaho.

Hartz said the report should be available in draft form by mid-January. Among other topics, it will consider current and historical intrastate air service in the state, passenger demand estimates along different routes and profitability estimates based on different aircraft types.

“We’ll be looking at everything from nine-seat aircraft all the way up to 76-seat aircraft, and everything in between,” he said. “From our analysis so far, the idea size is the 30- to 76-seat aircraft, in large part because of the relative cost to operate them, versus the number of seats. It allows relatively economical access to that capacity.”

The problem, Hartz said, is that the demand on various intrastate routes in Idaho may not be sufficient to justify planes of that size, and smaller planes are too expensive on a per-seat basis.

“While nine-seat aircraft could help in markets with less demand, we’ve found historically that they are just incredibly difficult to operate without direct, permanent subsidies,” he said. “The cost-per-seat is astronomically higher for a nine-seat aircraft, versus a 30-seat aircraft or larger.”

Something in between those two extremes might be ideal, but that raises other problems.

“The challenge in the entire airline industry is the lack of aircraft below 50-seats,” Hartz said.

While there are a handful of operators nationwide using 30-seat aircraft, he said, they’re typically charter operations and don’t necessarily have a lot of aircraft available.

Similarly, 19- or 30-seat turboprop planes would likely be ideal aircraft for Idaho’s intrastate market, Hartz said, “but they don’t exist anymore in the Lower 48 (states). Most that are operating operate in the cargo environment. The (passenger) airlines that did use them ceased to exist over the last decade, and that has absolutely been a challenge nationwide as other communities and other states look at this.”

The interim committee is co-chaired by Sen. Dan Johnson, R-Lewiston, and Rep. Caroline Troy, R-Genesee. It will meet again after the draft report is completed in January.

Troy also suggested that the report be presented to the House and Senate transportation and commerce committees, since state (and local) financial incentives may be needed to convince a private carrier to establish service in Idaho.

There is currently no regularly scheduled commercial air service between any Idaho cities. Direct flights between Lewiston and Boise ended two years ago, after Alaska Airlines/Horizon Air withdrew from the market.

“I see my role as a legislator is to look for long-term solutions (to that issue),” Johnson said during Friday’s meeting. “I’d like to see the state really take ownership in developing this intrastate service.”

Spence may be contacted at bspence@lmtribune.com or (208)-791-9168.