Idaho’s K-12 public school enrollment numbers are slightly higher than they were last fall, according to state data.
That continues a trend of enrollment numbers increasing since the 2022-23 school year, when student numbers started to pick up again after the pandemic. However, last school year’s gains were notably smaller than previous years, indicating a slowdown in student growth.
Of Idaho’s 10 largest districts, eight had enrollment declines this fall when compared to last. But there are pockets of growth — especially at online and nontraditional schools.
Enrollment shifts can have major consequences. Enrollment declines combined with budget deficits have sparked several school districts to shutter schools or consider doing so.
The factors behind enrollment dips vary. Boise leaders, for example, have pointed to rising home prices and an aging population. In the Idaho Falls School District, the sudden closure of an online school contributed to this fall’s decrease. And Nampa leaders have cited an influx of older incoming residents who don’t have school-aged children, and housing developments outside of district boundaries.
Nationwide, similar patterns of declining public school enrollment have emerged. Thomas Dee, an education professor at Stanford University, has attributed the losses to increased homeschooling, declining birth rates and migration patterns within the United States. An increase in private school enrollment has also had an impact, but to a lesser extent, Dee wrote in a 2023 essay.
But Idaho is an outlier in one way — it’s one of 10 states where public school enrollment is projected to grow between 2022 and 2031, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. Of those, Idaho is projected to have the largest percent increase in total enrollment over this period, with 11% growth predicted.
So far, the prediction of enrollment growth from 2022 on has been accurate — but just barely this fall.
Statewide enrollment trends — where numbers are growing and shrinking
We took a look at enrollment numbers in seven different ways, each shedding some light on student enrollment trends statewide.
You can look up the fall 2024 enrollment numbers at your school or charter here.
Flandro reports from her hometown of Pocatello.