High turnout, late returns led to long night for local candidates

Way too close for comfort.

That was Sen. David Nelson’s description of his razor-thin, 185-vote victory over former Sen. Dan Foreman on Tuesday, which was a repeat of their 2018 5th Legislative District race.

Early results showed Nelson, D-Moscow, trailing his opponent by almost 70 percent to 30 percent. However, after more than 13,000 absentee ballots were added in after midnight, he surged ahead with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

The nail-biting ride finally ended around 1 a.m. Wednesday, when the late-arriving Benewah County numbers nearly flipped the results back in Foreman’s favor.

The final vote of 12,649 to 12,464 — a difference of 0.74 percent — was well outside the 0.1 percent margin needed for an automatic recount.

Nevertheless, it was still the closest legislative contest in Idaho this year — an outcome that isn’t particularly unusual for the 5th District.

Since 2012, when Latah and Benewah counties were combined into a single district, at least one — and sometimes all three — legislative races in the district have ranked among the top five closest general election contests in the state.

“This and District 15 (in Ada County) are the two break-even districts in Idaho,” Nelson said Wednesday morning. “The lesson is you have to work really hard to represent the district. You can’t take any vote for granted. That’s why I work on nuts-and-bolts issues. We all agree we need to take care of our roads and most want a better education for their kids, so those are the issues I focus on. We need to focus on what we agree on, rather what separates us.”

This year’s 5th District House A race also looked to be a nail-biter for much of the night.

As with the Nelson-Foreman race, Moscow Republican Brandon Mitchell racked up a strong early lead over his Democratic opponent, Latah County Historical Society Executive Director Dulce Kersting-Lark. That evaporated after midnight, when Latah County absentee vote gave Kersting-Lark a 190-vote lead, or 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.

That margin proved insufficient to withstand the late Benewah County tally, though. Mitchell eventually prevailed by a margin of 13,877 votes to 11,140, or 55.5 percent to 44.5 percent.

The outcome “was pretty close to what my treasurer and I predicted,” Mitchell said Wednesday. “We were watching the absentee vote and thought with a 50-50 split we’d have a slight edge in Latah County.”

The absentee vote ultimately split 64-36 in Kersting-Lark’s favor. However, Mitchell received nearly 81 percent of the Benewah vote, which put him on top.

He said Tuesday’s roller-coaster ride will serve as a constant reminder to keep his constituents in mind.

“It’s not about me and my views,” Mitchell said. “It’s about what constituents want and what’s best for the district.”

Mitchell will take over from Rep. Bill Goesling, who chose not to run for reelection. He’ll attend a new legislator orientation session beginning Nov. 30, after which the Legislature will hold a reorganization session to elect House and Senate leadership.

And at some point before the 2021 session starts in January, Mitchell and his wife plan to take a vacation.

“It’s been a long eight months,” he said.

For Idaho elections officials, Tuesday night probably seemed like a long eight months all by itself. More than 800,000 ballots were cast — easily an all-time record — and the statewide results didn’t come in until about 4 a.m.

Final turnout figures weren’t immediately available, but Chief Deputy Secretary of State Chad Houck estimated it will exceed 82 percent. If so, that would be the highest general election turnout in at least the last 40 years.

And despite the huge turnout and late returns, the Washington Post reported that, as of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Idaho and Hawaii were the only states in the nation reporting complete election night results.

“By and large, things went pretty smoothly, at least as well or better than we anticipated,” Houck said.

Despite their hopes for a strong showing, Idaho Democrats lost two House seats Tuesday, in Boise and Pocatello. When losses in the May primary and retirements are factored in, there will be nearly a 21 percent turnover in the Legislature next session. That includes 19 new representatives — some of whom previously served — and three new senators.

In north central Idaho, the newcomers include Mitchell, Lewiston Rep. Aaron von Ehlinger — who was appointed to office earlier this year, after Rep. Thyra Stevenson died of a heart attack — and Riggins Rep. Charlie Shepherd, who takes over the seat vacated by his father, long-time Rep. Paul Shepherd.

Three-term Rep. Caroline Troy, R-Genesee, is now the longest actively serving representative in the region. Troy was reelected to her 5th District House B seat Tuesday with 55 percent of the total vote.

Unlike Nelson and Mitchell, she built a sizable early lead, maintained it even after the Latah absentee ballots were added in and then extended it with the Benewah results.

The final margin was 13,968 votes and 55.5 percent for Troy, compared to 10,279 votes and 41 percent for her Democratic opponent, University of Idaho geology instructor Renee Love. Constitution Party candidate James Hartley received 942 votes, or 3.7 percent.

“It’s a tough district,” Troy said Wednesday. “It swings back and forth. The midterms are where you need to navigate. That’s where Foreman (first) lost to Nelson.”

Nelson agreed that Democrats have a slightly easier path to victory during the midterm elections, when they don’t have to contend with the presidential vote.

He noted that he defeated Foreman in 2018 by more than 2,400 votes, compared to just 185 this year. The difference can be attributed to the higher turnout for a presidential election, he said.

Foreman said he was proud of Tuesday’s results, given how polarized the 5th District is.

“I gave it my best shot,” he said. “I’m sure we kept them biting their nails into the wee hours.”

Spence may be contacted at bspence@lmtribune.com or (208)-791-9168.