Budget plans would hike U.S. debt
Clinton's proposal would raise debt by $200 billion, Trump's by $5.3 trillion
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have reined in their economic and budget proposals over the past few months, but both presidential candidates would still increase the nation's overall debt burden.
Under current law, total federal debt is projected to jump about $10 trillion over the next decade, from about $19 trillion to more than $29 trillion.
In June, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analyzed the economic proposals of the two candidates and estimated that Trump's tax and spending plans would cost an additional $11.5 trillion by 2026 - over and above the projected $10 trillion increase - while Clinton would add about $250 billion in debt.
Both candidates have since modified and expanded their proposals. An updated analysis released this week suggests Trump's latest plans would only cost about $5.3 trillion, while the net effect of Clinton's proposals has dropped to $200 billion.
"Unfortunately, neither candidate has presented a proposal to address our growing national debt and put it on a more sustainable path, nor have they offered proposals for shoring up the Social Security, Medicare or highway trust funds," according to the report, which is available on the committee website at crfb.org.
The centerpiece of Trump's economic plan is $4.3 trillion in tax cuts, which includes a $1.45 trillion decrease in individual income taxes over the next decade, as well as a $2.85 trillion reduction in business taxes. He also eliminates $1.2 trillion in Affordable Care Act taxes.
On the spending side, the Republican nominee is proposing to cut $3.2 trillion in Medicaid, non-defense and Affordable Care Act expenditures, while increasing defense, veterans, child care and Medicare spending by $2 trillion, for a net reduction of $1.2 trillion over the next decade.
Interest costs under Trump's proposals would increase by about $700 billion.
Clinton's plan includes $1.5 trillion in tax increases, primarily on high-income earners, and a $150 billion net increase in business taxes.
The Democratic nominee would also increase spending by an estimated $1.65 trillion over the next decade. That's highlighted by a $500 billion increase in higher education funding, which would provide free tuition at in-state, four-year public institutions for students whose families make less than $125,000 per year. She also favors a $300 billion increase in infrastructure spending, as well as $300 billion for a paid family leave program and $40 billion for community health centers.
Interest costs under Clinton's proposals would increase by $50 billion over the next decade.
The committee analysis does not factor in the potential economic effects of either candidate's proposals. The Trump campaign, for example, suggests his tax cuts would boost economic growth by 75 percent over the next decade, generating an additional $3.5 trillion in revenue and dropping the net cost of his proposals to $1.8 trillion.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is a nonpartisan watchdog group dedicated to educating the public about the fiscal consequences of various federal policy choices.
In previous reports, the committee noted that $2.9 trillion in deficit reduction measures - tax increases, spending cuts or some combination of the two - will be needed over the next decade just to maintain the federal debt at its current level of 75 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. Balancing the budget during that same time period would require $7.8 trillion in deficit reduction.
These estimates are based on current law. If the presidential candidates add to the debt load, even greater reductions will be needed to keep the debt from rising to unprecedented levels.
Spence may be contacted at bspence@lmtribune.com or (208) 791-9168.
