This winter’s weather prediction? Get the snow shovel ready

Here’s the day after Thanksgiving question: What will our region’s winter portend?

More snow than usual? Or less? Cooler or warmer than the average winter?

With the help of meteorologist Steve Van Horn at the National Weather Service office in Spokane, you can figuratively take this prediction “to the (weather) bank.”

We’ll have moderately more snow than winter of a year ago. We’ll have a similar trend in temperatures, moderately cooler than a year ago. Our El Nino of last winter, which means drier and warmer, has been succeeded by a return to La Nina, which we had for the three previous years. But it’s so far a fairly weak La Nina, although typically still wetter and cooler.

To put it in more personal terms, my measurement of Lewiston winters is how often I have to shovel snow in my driveway. A year ago, with an El Nino, it was three times. Two winters ago, with a LaNina, it was five times. The likelihood in winter 2024-25? I’ll have to use my “professional snow shovel” (after all, it was purchased at McCall’s May Hardware in 2021) an estimated four or five times. We’ll see.

For you in the Palouse or on the Camas Prairie, your snow shoveling will be more frequent than mine in the so-called Banana Belt of the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley. Of course, many of you have snow blowers, not just snow shovels.

What will Lewiston-Clarkston’s winter look like? Expect somewhere between 15 and 20 inches of total snow. That compares to an average of 15.5 inches of snow (and an average of 22 inches in La Nina winters). Last winter we had 13.89 inches of snow, including a half inch in December, 12.3 inches in January and half an inch in February. A year earlier, with LaNina conditions, we had 16 inches.

What will the Palouse winter look like? In Moscow (already with an official 1.2 inches), expect 50 to 60 inches of snow, a bit above average. It’s similar in Pullman, where you can expect 35 to 40 inches of snow. The average snowfall in Moscow is 49 inches; in Pullman, it is 36 inches. (But the La Nina conditions mean an average of 67 inches in Moscow and 46 inches in Pullman.)

Why is there such a difference in snowfall between Moscow and Pullman, only 9 miles apart? It’s the terrain. Moscow is closer to the mountains. It’s similar to Spokane and Coeur d’Alene in that respect.

What will the Camas Prairie winter look like? Expect 90 to 100 inches of snow, more than the 90.5 average. (Grangeville has already had 2.5 inches of snow, less than the average early total of 4.6 inches).

You can expect the first half of December to be more moderate than the second half, both in temperature and snowfall.

This is all good news for winter enthusiasts — whether snow skiers, snow boarders or snowmobilers. Already, Brundage Ski Area near McCall opened for the season last Friday, the earliest in two decades, and Schweitzer near Sandpoint and Silver near Kellogg also have opened.

It’s a complete guess on how cold it might get in the winter ahead. Lewiston-Clarkston residents should not expect and do not want a severe dip like last winter, when the second Saturday of January had a reading of minus 10. That was the first time in 35 years to reach -10 or lower. It resulted in roses and other plants not surviving.

And how is your memory of summer, 2024? That’s when Grangeville, Moscow and Pullman residents — who infrequently have triple digits — can laugh at Lewiston-Clarkston dwellers, who prefer the winter comparison more than the summers with many triple digit days. (Folks, it’s the difference in elevation, with Lewiston the lowest elevation in Idaho.)

Think back. Lewiston-Clarkston had her fifth hottest summer in history in 2024, including 21 triple digit days. The average in the past 23 years is 12.2. July was the torrid month, having 15 triples in 16 days, The summer’s highest temperature was 111, both on July 21 and Aug. 2.

Moscow and Pullman didn’t escape triple digits, either. Pullman had a pair. Moscow, uncharacteristically, had seven.

Our north central Idaho and southeastern Washington region also had a moderate drought. Lewiston’s water year (that’s Oct. 1 through Sept. 30) had 11.93 inches of precipitation, less than the average of 12.87 inches, nearly an inch. Moscow had 22.52 inches, 5 inches less than the normal of 27.78.

Yes, November has been wetter than we expect. Lewiston has had 1.37 inches through earlier this week, more than the average of 1.08 inches. Moscow has had 4.61 inches, 1½ inches more than the average of 3.03 inches.

The outlook for the region’s water year 2024-25 is improved. That’s good news for agriculture.

Alford is president of TPC Holdings, parent company of the Tribune. He may be contacted at alajr@lmtribune.com or at (208) 848-2250.