Local outlook for global warming not so bleak

A University of Idaho researcher who contributed to the National Climate Assessment said Tuesday he does not expect climate change to have adverse effects on area wheat farmers in the near future.

Sanford Eigenbrode, who is one of the 300 members of the writing team for the report released Tuesday by the White House, said an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere might be positive for farmers in the region.

"Carbon dioxide is a fertilizer so increases in CO2 have the potential to benefit crops," Eigenbrode said. "They can even grow better under those conditions than under current conditions, as long as the temperature or water stress or drought doesn't offset those CO2 fertilizations. Just within the cereal grain system, for the near term I would not say there is cause for concern."

Eigenbrode and two colleagues from Oregon State University collaborated on the two-year report that has been reviewed by the scientific community, industry and the public.

Eigenbrode said the report's authors have reviewed hundreds of comments in preparing their final version.

But the report is not a recommendation about how to respond to climate change.

"This is information about the best science about the climate that can be used by any citizen, politician or farmer," he said. "There hasn't been change in climate that has necessitated a great deal of adjustment by farmers - certainly not in the three years that the project has been going on."

Eigenbrode expressed confidence in agriculture's ability to adapt to changing conditions, but said few farmers are making adjustments now based on their concern for climate change.

"Any time a grower is adopting precision application technology for nitrogen or any time they are adopting reduced tillage and certain kinds of applications (and) diversification efforts to grow different crops, they're engaged in practices that will have usefulness down the road," he said. "I don't think that any of our producers are doing this because of climate change. That's not really the current view."

Climate change will have an effect on farming, however, in things such as an increase in pests like the cereal leaf beetle, he said, which threaten the region's crops.

Farmers could also expect to see operating costs go up as temperatures rise, which they are expected to do by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century.

"It may also be possible, though, that farmers are able to respond to that in ways that would mitigate those impacts," Eigenbrode said.

This could include relying more on winter cereal grains that mature sooner than current crops, making them less susceptible to summer heat and drought.

"There are different kinds of things that farmers are certainly very capable of devising, without too much additional cost to modify their operations, to do it as well as possible under the climate as it emerges," he said.

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Hedberg may be contacted at kathyhedberg@gmail.com (208) 983-2326.